National Development Program: Bulgaria 2020.

The National Development Program: Bulgaria 2020 (NPR BG2020) is the leading strategic and programmatic document that specifies the goals of the country's development policies until 2020. The vision, goals and priorities of the NPR BG2020 are defined on the basis of a socio-economic analysis, as well as the opinions received within the framework of public discussions at each stage of the preparation of the document. The formulated goals of government policies will ensure the achievement of accelerated economic growth and an increase in the standard of living of Bulgarian citizens in the medium and long term. The NPR BG2020 is a document on national decisions for growth. It is in line with Bulgaria's commitments at the European and international level, but fulfills the country's aspiration to choose a national path for progress.
The main goal of the NPR BG2020 is to achieve quality and balanced long-term economic growth. The socio-economic analysis and the formulation of the economic policies contained in the NPR BG2020 have been carried out using the achievements of modern macroeconomic theory and practice in the field of economic growth. Economic growth in Bulgaria is determined by the following factors: human capital, employment, physical capital (production facilities, facilities, etc.), infrastructure (road, water, energy, communication, etc.), technological knowledge (research and innovation activity, and information and communication technologies), as well as from the general (joint) productivity of the listed factors. The main challenge before the formulation of economic policies consists in finding the optimal balance in terms of stimulating all the above-mentioned factors of production. Theory and practice have established that insufficient treatment of some factors at the expense of others can lead to a severe limitation of the opportunities for economic growth in the long term. At the same time, the Bulgarian economy lags behind the leading economies in terms of the quantity and quality of human capital, the intensity and quality of 1 The factors are derived on the basis of econometric modeling and economic simulations through the application of the SIBILA model, scientific and development activity, innovation activity and investments in infrastructure. Therefore, the search for the aforementioned balance should take into account these challenges, looking for opportunities for some priority focus on these areas of lagging. Ignoring the importance of these problems or even delaying the adequate actions of the state in this regard may turn out to be extremely unfavorable in terms of the processes of economic convergence to European and world standards in the long term. The formulated policies and measures to be implemented within the program period represent an unequivocal response to these challenges. Despite the limited funding, the effective implementation of the program guarantees the achievement of the set goals. General principles underlying the development of the NPR BG2020: The complex nature of government policies implies the formulation of a common, publicly announced framework for development programming, taking into account all aspects of the policy development and implementation process. NPR BG2020 is a long-term national program document for the development of the Republic of Bulgaria, which is the basis for the programming of strategic documents in connection with the implementation of both national and EU policies. The document will help to optimize Bulgaria's development programming until 2020, ensuring the connection between the national priorities of the Republic of Bulgaria and the EU's goals in the context of the "Europe: 2020" Strategy. The NDP BG2020 will provide the framework in which to determine the priorities for the distribution of public funds (national and European), as well as the mobilization of private financing.
The specific macroeconomic parameters of development, on which the NPR BG2020 is based, correspond to the forecasts for the economic development of the country until 2015 in the Convergent Program of the Republic of Bulgaria (2012-2015). For the period from 2016 to 2020, the current long-term forecasts developed and provided by the Ministry of Finance were used. The main assumptions for the development of the economy are for GDP growth of 2.7% on average per year for the period 2010-2020. The accumulated growth at the end of the period is expected to reach 34.3%. Unemployment is projected to fall to 8.2% in 2020. The actual Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.5% on average annually by the end of the period. In terms of the main parameters of fiscal policy, a budget deficit is envisaged to be maintained within the limits of the Stability and Growth Pact and national fiscal rules, while the public debt/GDP ratio remains relatively stable around the current level at the time of drafting the program.