Three-year action plan for the implementation of the National Development Program: Bulgaria 2020 in the period 2014-2016.

The Bulgarian Three-year action plan for the implementation of the National Development Program (2020) aimed for the planned period from the year 2014 until the year 2016 addresses specific actions and applied goals in relation to those generally prospected by the main strategic document (National Development Program of the Republic of Bulgaria 2020). The detailed strategy for the period 2014-2016 contains issues regarding the economic and social situation and prospects for targeted development; interactions with governance mechanisms and development of the national economy during the planned period; social dimensions of economic development and more detailed prospects for development goals and mid-targets; and terms and effects of preliminary impact assessment obligations. The matrix with measures for the implementation of the National Development Program: Bulgaria 2020 for the designated period 2014-2016 is given in the annex of this text; Annex 2 contains the list of indicators for measuring the impact of the NDP: Bulgaria 2020.
This part of the action plan presents an assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the planned measures. For this purpose, the SIBILA model (Simulation model of Bulgaria's Investment in Long-term Advance - SIBILA) was used. Long-term effects were evaluated, defined as changes in the levels of basic macroeconomic indicators, which were generated as a result of the interventions made in the period 2014-2016 and are permanently observed after the cessation of the impulse (the end of the implementation of the measures). As a result of the planned interventions during the considered period, a positive change was observed in terms of the economic activity of the able-bodied population, employment and unemployment rates. This is due to both direct effects of the infusion of funds into the economy (creating jobs) and indirect effects (finding expression in increasing the quality of the employed and labor force in general). The latter are also manifested in an additional increase in labor productivity. At the same time, higher employment and reduced unemployment allow accelerating income growth. The simulations show a relatively modest long-term effect in terms of employment – in 2020, the indicator increases by 1.9% as a result of the measures implemented in the period 2014-2016. On the other hand, with the full implementation of the measures, i.e. providing all the necessary funds, the number of employed would accelerate its growth to 2.6%. In contrast to the observed mostly direct effects on employment, labor force and unemployment, the positive impact on labor productivity is mostly indirect. The increase in the quality characteristics of human capital is reflected in an increase in total factor productivity and a long-term increase in labor productivity in the economy. This text sets terms and goals aimed at economic growth, offered as key importance for social development and the quality of life of the population - greater production, higher levels of employment and incomes lead to an increase in living standards and, accordingly, to a reduction in the poverty level.