Revision of Iceland’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution.

Iceland’s revised 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) clarifies its greenhouse gas reduction obligations within its climate cooperation framework with the EU and Norway. The updated target commits Iceland to at least a 41% reduction in emissions from sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) by 2030 compared to 2005, equivalent to lowering emissions from 3109.329 kt CO₂eq in 2005 to 1834.504 kt CO₂eq in 2030. Although the revision does not raise ambition beyond the 2021 submission, it improves transparency and alignment with Paris Agreement reporting requirements.
Iceland’s NDC remains economy-wide, achieved through three interconnected EU-aligned mechanisms: the ESR for non-ETS sectors such as transport, agriculture, and waste; the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) for heavy industry and aviation; and the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation governing carbon sinks and land emissions. The country intends to meet its target primarily through domestic measures while continuing to cooperate with the EU and Norway under the EEA Agreement. Methodological assumptions follow IPCC guidelines, and final accounting may depend on future arrangements for cooperation and potential use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes.
The revision also outlines the institutional processes underpinning Iceland’s NDC, including the Climate Act, Climate Council, inter-ministerial committees, and regular stakeholder consultation. Iceland considers its target fair and ambitious given its national circumstances, particularly since its energy system was already largely decarbonized before 2005, making further reductions more challenging. The country sees the clarified target as a more explicit expression of its fair contribution to global climate goals and as consistent with Articles 2 and 4 of the Paris Agreement.