The Sultanate of Oman's National Strategy for an Orderly Transition to Net Zero.

This National Strategy for an Orderly Transition to Net Zero is a sectoral document aiming at introducing the Oman’s Vision to net zero emissions by 2050 to counteract the effects of global climate change and to be in line with the Paris Climate Agreement’s objective of limiting global climate change to below 1.5C compared to pre-industrial levels. The energy transition will be underpinned by the following fundamental objectives (i) ensure environmental sustainability; (ii) minimize economic costs to Omani citizens and industries; (iii) optimize the economic impact arising from the transition; (iv) encourage job creation; (v) ensure a secure energy supply. Among the possible alternatives, an orderly transition offers a middle option by implementing the lowest-cost decarbonization levers first as they become economically viable, then activating levers to address harder-to-abate emissions. Individual sectors would decarbonize at different paces, but the national pathway would consider all five objectives. Six main decarbonization technologies would support an orderly transition (1) energy and resource efficiency; (2) electrification and renewables; (3) battery electric technology; (4) sustainable hydrogen; (5) carbon capture and storage; (6) negative-emission solutions. Together, these technologies would cover around 90% of abatement to 2050. However, achieving decarbonization goals necessitates technological maturity, such as long-duration energy storage, alongside the development of new infrastructure, increased adoption of electric vehicles, and the implementation of policies, legislation, and market mechanisms to incentivize behavioral changes and carbon pricing.
The identified key priority sectors are (i) Industry with alternative production methods to almost fully replace conventional production. The energy mix would change from hydrocarbon-dominant to a 50/50 split with renewable sources; (ii) Oil and Gas; (iii) Transport converting light vehicles and short-distance heavy vehicles to full electrification, while long-distance heavy vehicles are set to transition to hydrogen fuel cells. Additionally, behavioral shifts, such as greater reliance on public transit and car-pooling, are anticipated to decrease car usage, leading to a 10% reduction in emissions; (iv) Buildings; (v) Power.
To achieve its objective, Oman faces several requirements (i) technology must mature, with a 30% reduction in the levelized cost of solar electricity and a 20% reduction for wind. Electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles need to become competitively priced; (ii) substantial infrastructure developments are necessary, including grid extensions, charging networks for electric vehicles, and carbon capture and storage facilities for industrial players; (iii) legislative and policy measures are needed to incentivize behavioral changes, facilitate green products and production routes, and attract private investments; (iv) market mechanisms like carbon pricing may be essential to support the scaling of more expensive decarbonization technologies, such as carbon capture and storage.