Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Dniester River Basin.

The purpose of developing the Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Dniester River Basin is to propose actions that: (a) are needed to reduce the vulnerability of the natural environment, the economy and the population in the basin to climate change; (b) can and should be carried out at the basin level or with the participation of its institutions; and (c) are difficult or impossible to implement without basin-wide coordination and cooperation mechanisms. The groups of measures proposed within the context of the research that was conducted and the consultations that were held are presented in accordance with the components of the Strategic Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Dniester River Basin, namely: (a) reduction in losses from extreme flooding; (b) reduction in losses from a decrease in flow; (c) reduction in losses from a deterioration in water quality; (d) increase in the resilience of aquatic and wetland ecosystems; and (e) general measures for climate change adaptation in the basin.
Although the trends in climate change are already fairly well understood, generally speaking, there is still a lack of clarity about the degree and speed of these changes. Therefore, the climate projections for both Europe and the Dniester basin presented above reflect only the basic trends in potential changes; they do not offer an exhaustive picture of these changes in all their diversity, nor do they tell us what the future will actually look like. The uncertainty of climate change projections will continue into the future and even under the best of circumstances this uncertainty will be eased only in part as new knowledge is gained and events and changes continue to emerge. At the point that these changes occur, however, there may be neither the time nor the resources remaining for adaptation to them. For this reason, it is essential to plan now for adaptation, and not only with respect to the changes in climate parameters that can already be predicted. Adaptation plans also need to be put into place that account for the possibility that the behavior of the climate system will be difficult to predict, that it will change in ways that are still unknown. This requires, on the one hand, that the measures being implemented provide a larger margin of safety that allows for functioning within a broad range of potential future climate change scenarios, and on the other hand, the ability to apply these measures in a flexible way, depending on what actually happens with the climate. In order to ensure this flexibility, it is essential to have constant observations of climate parameters and parameters derived from them, as well as mechanisms for the effective sharing, analysis and use of this information for decision-making.
Future climate change will have an impact both on the natural resources and ecosystems of the Dniester region and basin, and on the population and economy. In recent years a number of special studies and surveys of these consequences have been performed. There is no question that within the context of climate change adaptation at the basin level, problems directly related to the aquatic environment and to changes in the water regime and in the condition of water resources are of the greatest interest. In the Dniester basin, a probable change in the volume and seasonal distribution of flow stands out as one of the critical consequences of climate change. The expected change in flow could lead to a deterioration in water quality as well. The effectiveness of the current flood protection system will decline with the expected increase in water levels involved in catastrophic flooding in the future. Climate change, including changes in temperature patterns and the related dynamics of hydrological processes (for example, a decline in water levels in the river and in overflow systems), is one of the key factors in altering the ichthyofauna of the Dniester.